How Fast Can FHA Shrink its Market Share?

DEC 11, 2012 11:59am ET

Not too long ago FHA had a market share (as a percentage of originations) of 28%. It’s slipped a bit since then, down to the low 20s but is still significant by historical standards. (During the subprime boom its share was 2.5%.) As the agency increases premiums to bolster its cash-depleted insurance fund, chances are new business will migrate to the private sector where MI companies the likes of Radian, United Guaranty, Essent and others hope to pick up business. But keep in mind that roughly $1 trillion of FHA loans are outstanding today and with rates so low this book of business isn’t like to refinance or run-off any time soon. The only way I see that happening is if home values increase dramatically the net few years and FHA borrowers engage in cash-out refis switching coverage to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Just a thought.



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