One of the Senate races involves Elizabeth Warren, the founder of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, who is running as a Democrat in Massachusetts.
The organizers plan to whittle this watch list to two races before committing funds to the chosen campaigns in late September or early October.
Going public with the watch list is expected to transform the concept into something much more concrete for bankers as the Nov. 6 elections draw nearer.
“It will help them see this is a for-sure deal and we're in it for the long haul," says Matt Packard, the president and CEO of Central Bank in Provo, Utah, and chairman of the SuperPAC's board. "I expect bankers will say, 'I can see what they are doing. I get what they are driving for. Yeah, I am for that!' "
Roger Beverage, the president and CEO of the Oklahoma Bankers Association, who also sits on the SuperPAC's board, said "bankers need to see some progress, that we are actually doing something. The watch list will help us convey that message better than just the abstract that we've been talking about so far."
Of the seven races under consideration, the group is looking at four Republicans including Sens. Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Dean Heller of Nevada, Rep. Francisco Canseco of Texas and a community banker, Bob Dieterich, who is challenging Rep. Paul Tonko, a Democrat from upstate N.Y. in his second term.
The Democrats selected for potential backing are Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and Reps. Mark Critz of Pennsylvania and Jim Matheson of Utah.
The slate of seven races was chosen by the Friends of Traditional Banking's advisory council, which includes the leaders of these state associations: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Vermont.
The SuperPAC's five-member board—Packard along with two other bankers, Beverage and another state association executive—will look at polling data after Labor Day and winnow the list to two races the week of Sept. 10.
Asked how the board will make its final decisions, Packard says, "There is no real clear-cut way of determining it. There are a lot of factors."
One of those factors is how close a race is. The SuperPAC wants to have an influence, so it is unlikely to donate to candidates with no shot of winning.
Another consideration is whether the bankers' money can make a dent. Campaigns that have already attracted a ton of contributions may not make sense for Friends of Traditional Banking.
"The premise is not to be negative," Packard says. "The premise is not to hurt people or to create a bad image like a lot of SuperPACs do. The objective is to support friends or support opponents of incumbents where we think we can have some influence and do it in a very positive way."
That's probably why the advisory council chose seven "friends" and no "foes" for the watch list. But including the Massachusetts Senate race is likely more about the challenger, Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren, than it is about Brown, whose vote for Dodd-Frank would disqualify him as a "friend" for many community bankers.
Packard admits that contributions from Friends of Traditional Banking probably can't move the needle in Massachusetts, as Brown and Warren have already raised more than $50 million combined. But he says selecting that race could motivate bankers. For many in the industry, Warren represents the worst piece of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010—the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Warren initially proposed creating the agency, and after the reform law was enacted President Obama asked her to get it off the ground. She left Washington in August 2011 and soon began her campaign to unseat Brown.
"Do I think our influence will make or break that race? No, but there is a lot of emotion with her," Packard says of Warren. "She would galvanize a lot of bankers."
And that may be what Friends of Traditional Banking needs to gain momentum—common enemy that will unify bankers around the country.