Outlook for Originations Volume Is a Little Worse: Fannie

Originations will drop 30% in 2014 from an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2013 in Fannie Mae’s latest forecast, according to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist.

The projected decline to close to $1.26 billion is a little pessimistic than in Fannie’s December originations forecast for almost $1.32 billion in 2014, but more optimistic than the Mortgage Bankers Association’s recent forecast for just above $1.1 trillion in annual volume.

Fannie’s most recent forecast also calls for about a 37% refinancing share, a 1.7% increase in existing home sales and a 20% increase in new home sales. All these percentages are slightly more pessimistic that last month’s.

“We are cautious about the rate rise,” Duncan says.

Institutional purchases of rental housing have subsided, Duncan told editors of this publication at a meeting in New York. The apartment sector should be stable in the coming year, he says.

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