Additionally, those declines are expected to be minor, Veros said. The HPI indicates that, on average for the top 100 metro areas, there should 4.8% home price appreciation over the next 12 months.
The company said this is the fifth consecutive quarter where the index has forecasted appreciation. The 3Q13 data represent an upswing of over 50% from last quarter’s 3.1% home price appreciation forecast.
“Even in previous strong real estate markets there have always been a few markets that did not perform well, so this is not unusual,” said Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling. “The national split between appreciating and depreciating markets, at roughly 95:5 respectively, continues to be a positive trend from the last several quarterly updates.”
A more muted view comes from CoreLogic, which earlier this week said it anticipated “moderate gains in home prices over the balance of this year, supported by the recent downward trend in rates and continued tight supplies of homes in many markets.”
Veros said the top four markets for projected price appreciation are in California (with two of the top three in the Bay Area): San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, up 15%; San Diego, up 10.8%; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, up 10.6%; and Los Angeles-Long Beach, up 10.5%. Rounding up the top five is the Phoenix area, up 10.4%.
At the other end of the spectrum, Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss., is projected to have 2.7% price depreciation. Norwich-New London, Conn., should see 1.9% depreciation; Rockford, Ill., 1.1% depreciation; Huntsville, Ala., 0.9% depreciation; and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas, 0.9% depreciation.