On Friday the regulator/conservator of the GSEs declared that both are “substantially better” off today than they were four years ago when they were taken over by the government.
To date, Fannie and Freddie have already drawn $187.5 billion from Treasury to cover losses and maintain a positive net worth. (Without a positive net worth investors likely would avoid their bonds.)
FHFA estimates that the two will need only additional $3 billion to $22 billion in federal assistance from yearend 2012 through 2015. Both have been reporting operating profits this year.
“In the current projections, Freddie Mac would not require additional Treasury draws after 2012,” FHFA says.
The agency uses three different economic and house price scenarios to estimate the performance of the GSEs over the three-year period. “Fannie would not require additional draws after 2012 in two of the three scenarios,” the GSE regulator said.
The report signals that Fannie and Freddie likely will be generating profits over the next three years.
Under a recent conservatorship agreement, the GSEs must hand over all their profits to the Treasury Department to repay the assistance they have received since September 2008.
By yearend 2015, Fannie would still owe Treasury $49 billon to $94 billion under the three scenarios and Freddie would owe $18 billion to $38 billion, according to the FHFA report.