JAN 2, 2014 12:31pm ET

Jump in Rates in Line with Most Forecasts

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The average 30-year Freddie Mac survey rate is starting 2014 five basis points higher week-to-week in a move emblematic of a widely-expected sea-change in rate trends this year.

The average Freddie rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage is three basis points higher than during the previous survey week.

These moves leave the 30-year rate three basis points above a four-and-a-half percent rate, and the 15-year rate five basis points above a three-and-a-half percent rate.

The past week’s data suggest “a stronger economic recovery,” according to Freddie Mac. This is in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2014 plan to gradually end rate-lowering stimulus that has bolstered the country’s finances. The Fed’s plan will put to an end a recent run of years in which long-term rates hit record- or near-record lows, unless signs of an improving economy falter in 2014.

The 30-year rate remains more than 1% lower than a year ago, and the 15-year rate in the most recent week was just a little less than 1% lower at this time last year.

The average rate for a five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage during the week ending Jan. 2 was five basis points than the previous week, when it was 3% and 34 basis points higher than one year ago.

The average rate for a one-year Treasury ARM during the most recent week remained a basis point above five-and-a-half, right where it was the previous week. It is one basis point higher than a year ago, making it an exception to the broader rate trend.

Average points during the most recent week were lowest for five-year Treasury hybrid ARMs at 0.4 of a point, followed by one-year Treasury ARMs at 0.5 of a point, 15-year FRMs at 0.7 of a point and 30-year FRMs at 0.8 of a point.

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