B&C Overdues Skyrocket
The delinquency rate on subprime mortgages reached almost 19% at June 30, according to exclusive survey figures collected by Mortgage Servicing News and the Quarterly Data Report.
The figure is based on responses from 11 subprime servicing firms. Several companies would not disclose their late payment ratios to MSN, including the nation's largest subprime servicer, Countrywide Financial Corp., Calabasas, Calif.
Even though CFC would not disclose the figure to this newspaper, in a recent public filing it reported that its nonprime servicing portfolio had a delinquency rate of 20.15% at June 30, compared to 14.41% at the same period in 2006.
CFC's conventional and overall delinquency ratios are 2.64% and 4.98%, respectively.
At June 30, 2006 subprime servicers surveyed by NMN had an overall delinquency ratio of just 10.1% with 22 firms reporting.
In the year ahead, residential delinquencies of all types are expected to increase as declining home prices and job losses are exacerbated by ARM resets.
A new report issued by Friedman Billings Ramsey predicts that subprime delinquencies on loans securitized will reach 16% by mid-2008. (MSN/QDR figures do not distinguish between securitized and non-securitized loans.)
In September, Department of Housing and Urban Development secretary Alphonso Jackson predicted that some 280,000 subprime borrowers might be able to refinance into an FHA loan by the end of next year.
FBR notes, "As the subprime borrowers who are current are able to refinance into conforming and FHA-insured mortgage loans, those who are delinquent should represent higher proportions of subprime RMBS and higher default rates should follow arithmetically."
The investment banker adds, "However, we expect servicers to apply the full range of loss mitigation techniques to subprime loans."
U.S. consumers owe roughly $9.2 trillion on their residential loans, roughly $1.2 trillion of that is subprime, according to the QDR.
The Worsening Delinquency Picture at Countrywide (Dollar in trillions)
Data At At % Change
Point 9/30/07 9/30/06 Over 12 Months
Foreclosures Pending 1.27% 0.51% 149%
Total Delinquencies (1) 5.85% 4.04% 45%
Servicing Portfolio $1.46 $1.24 18%
NOTES: When CFC last reported these data points it declined to break out subprime delinquencies. However, those figures should be available in late October when CFC reports earnings. (1) Delinquency figure is based on unpaid principal balance of the servicing portfolio, not number of units.
Source: Company reports/MSN. Questions? Email: Paul.Muolo
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