Federal Open Market Committee press conference: Live coverage

By Kyle Campbell , John Heltman and Maria Volkova

Published September 16, 2026 1:30 PM

Updated September 16, 2026 3:10 PM

2 Min Read

Key insight: The Federal Open Market Committee is broadly expected to raise interest rates this week in response to persistently high inflation.
Expert quote: "By declining forward guidance, and without a reaction function to stress the conditionality around the decision, equivocating might sound like unwillingness to hike further, undermining the benefits of having hiked and having brought the Committee to consensus on further hiking in the [summary of economic projections]." — Derek Tang, Monetary Policy Analytics
Forward look: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will take to the podium Wednesday afternoon to discuss the committee's decision and field questions about its thought process.

WASHINGTON — The Federal Open Market Committee is broadly expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday.

Treasury yields have climbed to more than 4.6%, up nearly 40 basis points from the FOMC's last meeting at the end of July and more than a full percentage point from the beginning of the year. Federal futures markets put the odds of a hike at more than 92%.

"The CPI data last week all but locked in a rate hike this week," wrote Bank of America global economist Antonio Gabriel in an analyst note this week. "Chair [Kevin] Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, together with current market pricing, have raised the cost of disappointing expectations significantly."

Should the committee deliver a 25 basis point increase, it would be the first hike in three years and a surprise turn of events under a Federal Reserve chairman who many assumed would usher in easier monetary policy.

But more important than the rate decision itself is how Warsh explains the action to the public during his post-meeting press conference.

After his first two FOMC meetings, Warsh spoke resolutely about the need to tamp down on excessively high inflation. Yet, in both instances, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged, causing some analysts to question the credibility of Warsh's rhetoric in July.

Should the committee opt for raising rates this time, after August's inflation reading came in above-target but in line with July's reading, markets could reasonably question why the committee didn't raise rates sooner.

Derek Tang, head researcher at Monetary Policy Analytics, said an unwillingness to explain the rationale could create confusion in the markets, particularly as Wednesday's committee vote will be paired with the FOMC's quarterly economic forecasts — for which Warsh did not submit projections in June.

"By declining forward guidance, and without a reaction function to stress the conditionality around the decision, equivocating might sound like unwillingness to hike further, undermining the benefits of having hiked and having brought the Committee to consensus on further hiking in the [summary of economic projections]," Tang wrote. "And even if Warsh gets his story straight, it is unlikely all other colleagues communicate in concert, given the late pivot into a hike."

The FOMC is set to release its decision and forecasts at 2 p.m., with Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30.

7 Posts

2h 17m ago

Warsh walks thin line on AI implications

By John Heltman

Bloomberg News

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was asked about the increasing concern from artificial intelligence industry leaders that the technology's capabilities are growing faster than our ability to contain it, and his response indicated that he was concerned but careful not to say too much.

"I've spent a lot of time thinking about AI, and before I found my way to this post, I spent a lot of time talking about it publicly," Warsh said before adding that he had established a task force earlier his summer to examine the central bank's approach to AI adoption and the economic implications that come with it.

But Warsh quickly pivoted to say that his views and those that the Fed would be considering were less about whether AI adoption should be slowed but rather about how the central bank might respond to a range of outcomes depending on what other areas of government decide.

"The policy decisions that are made about the risks and rewards, the challenges and opportunities — those are decisions made by other parts of the government," Warsh said. "We'll leave it to them to make those political decisions, those policy decisions. The implications of those decisions obviously have some bearing on our day job, and that's where we'll be focused."

2h 26m ago

Seven week road map to rate hike

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that the FOMC decided to "buy time" seven weeks ago, during its last meeting, before opting to raise interest rates Wednesday.

"I would say a good majority of my colleagues seven weeks ago thought seven weeks is a good investment," Warsh said. "It's a way to buy time, so we can make a wise decision."Speaking at the post-FOMC presser, Warsh said the committee weighed a number of developments that led to a unanimous vote by the committee to set the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%. Among those considerations was the continuation of political tensions in the Middle East.

"There's no hiding from hotspots around the world, and our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely of the geopolitical situation has changed," he said.

Warsh also said that the economy is strong, including the labor market, giving the central bank room to turn its attention to addressing inflationary pressures.

2h 28m ago

Warsh endorses trends over data points

By Kyle Campbell

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Last week's consumer price index reading of inflation in August solidified market expectations for a Fed rate hike. But Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that report was less influential on the committee's decision to tighten monetary policy.

"Market participants and reporters … have grown accustomed to waiting somewhat breathlessly on a data point. That isn't my view," he said. "I was not waiting breathlessly on what any particular data was, whether it was retail sales this morning or a [consumer proce index] print last week."

Instead, Warsh said the committee's decision to increase rates on Wednesday was based on long-running trends on prices and employment. He noted that the totality of that data indicates to him that monetary policy was not restricting the rapidly growing U.S. economy.

"Trends matter. Data points are noisy," he said. "Data point dependence is a dangerous preoccupation. It's not something that concerns me."

As for how the broader public should judge the Fed's reactiveness to individual economic indicators, Warsh said markets will make that determination on their own in due time.

"Markets over time will come to understand how this Fed makes its decisions, what's relevant and not, and I would want to editorialize that for them," he said.

2h 42m ago

'Today was our decision'

By Kyle Campbell

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh brushed off the idea that the FOMC's decision to raise interest rates this week was a response to changes in market prices.

Since taking the reins at the Fed, Warsh has argued that the central bank should be responsive to financial markets rather than the other way around. This has been central to his move to limit the amount of guidance he provides to the public.

Yet, Warsh noted that the decision to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point was a made solely on the committee's own view of the economic outlook.

"We made this decision today based on our assessment of the situation, based on our assessment of the trajectory for employment, based on our judgment on the strength of the economy," he said. "Sometimes the market tries to prejudge our outcomes. I'll observe market prices and see what they have to say. But today was our decision."

3h 6m ago

Markets vindicated in rate hike, stay flat

By John Heltman

Bloomberg News

Equity markets largely shrugged off the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate hike in the minutes after the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise interest rates 25 basis points Wednesday afternoon.

More than 90% of market participants had penciled in a hike for Wednesday, though traders likely felt vindicated that their expectations were met — and met without dissent among the members of the FOMC. In the leadup to the FOMC announcement, predictions market provider Kalshi suggested 85% odds of a rate hike.

The outcome is perhaps the least disruptive possible. Had the committee voted to keep rates the same, or if there had been more dissents, it might suggest a less clear interest rate path going forward.

3h 26m ago

FOMC approves rate hike unanimously

By Kyle Campbell

Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 in favor of a quarter-point interest rate hike on Wednesday afternoon.

Citing a desire to support a "timelier return" to the Fed's 2% inflation target, the committee set the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%.

The move follows an August consumer price index report last week that showed headline inflation at 3.4%. While the level of price growth was in line with recent months and, in some core measures, on the decline, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other FOMC officials said they needed to see a clear deflationary trend to keep rates unchanged.

According to economic forecasts submitted during this week's meeting, 16 of 18 FOMC participants expect to raise rates at least once more during their final two meetings of 2026. Warsh, following a precedent set at his first meeting in June, did not fill out a quarterly projection.

Unlike the June summary of economic projections, or SEP, which showed a roughly even split between members expecting the federal funds rate to remain at or below the current level and those anticipating a hike, the September consensus for further tightening was clear. Twelve participants forecasted a single 25 basis point hike while four others called for two.

Participants broadly expect stronger economic growth this year than they did three months ago and lower unemployment. Some members revised their 2026 inflation expectations down, with a consensus forming around 3.7% and 3.8% personal consumption expenditures growth on the year.

In a noteworthy shift, one of the 18 FOMC participants that participated in Wednesday's SEP did not submit forecasts for 2028 and 2029. Warsh later revealed that he was the missing participant.

The committee's decision to hike was broadly anticipated by financial market participants and analysts, with two-year bond yields climbing to their highest level in two years and federal funds futures markets pricing in a 92% likelihood of a hike ahead of the announcement.

3h 57m ago

Ruling out a hold? Not so fast

By Kyle Campbell

Bloomberg News

While the overwhelming consensus favors a rate hike on Wednesday, a hold cannot be written off entirely.

In the days directly preceding the FOMC's pre-meeting blackout period for external communications, two senior members of the committee made the case for keeping interest rates unchanged.

Both New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said that underlying inflation may be growing more slowly than headline data suggests.

Waller noted that a forthcoming change to the measure of personal consumption expenditures — removing non-market estimates of price growth that are tied largely to movements in stock prices — could shave three-tenths of a percent off the Fed's go-to measure of inflation, putting it very near its 2% target.

"If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level," Waller said. "But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike."

Core inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was 2.4% in August, down from 2.5% in July. Whether that amounts to continued progress, a hot reading, or something else could shape the voting decision of Waller and others.

Likewise, some analysts have noted that even Warsh's commentary on the economy left room for discretion and an opening for a hold.

"A hike is unlikely to be the layup the market expects," wrote Gary Pzegeo, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. "Warsh noted in his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed would have to see underlying inflation heading toward 2% 'at sufficient speed' and some will be able to argue that key components of the CPI data show improvement. Core goods and housing represent over half of CPI and have been normalizing at annual rates between 1% and 2% recently."

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