Mortgage rates

Bond investors will zero in on Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, with a further selloff in long-dated Treasuries at stake as markets look for clues on the Federal Reserve chairman's response to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns.

May's 15,855 actions are the least since September 2025, when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had 15,550 loans modified, forborne or otherwise dealt with, FHFA said.

Despite Treasury intervention to calm bond yields, persistent deficit pressure continues to trap mortgage rates, keeping application volume flat and squeezing origination revenue.

Just two weeks after releasing its planned schedule for buybacks this quarter, the Treasury Department on Wednesday said it's "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations" for securities dated from the 10-year to the 30-year sector. 

After losing money on production in most quarters between 2022 and 2024, independent mortgage bankers have achieved five consecutive quarters in the black.

So far, annual home lending growth is on track to slow, but not stop, with some positive developments surfacing amid broader challenges.

The seller surplus was a result of sluggish demand as opposed to increased supply. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose every week in July to 6.66%.

For the first time in six weeks, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped, with observers expecting a steady but challenging housing market for the rest of 2026.

Pending home sales, a real-time indicator of homebuying demand, dropped 2.5% to their lowest level since December, according to Redfin's latest report.

Mortgage production declined overall in July from activity earlier this summer amid growing rate volatility, according to two new originations reports.

The markets mostly believe the jobs report put the damper on a September hike, but some still think the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to raise first.

The 3 basis point gain in the 30-year fixed comes as investors are now pricing in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve short-term rate hike in September.

The bill, which is meant to free up housing supply locked in by high mortgage rates, does not include assumable mortgages which stick with the property.

Incomes have been rising faster than what buyers need to earn to afford one of these homes, but the annual gain began shrinking in January, Redfin found.

The jump last week drove the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index to a five-month low, while refinancing slid to depths not seen since mid-2025.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are under directives to make mortgage-backed securities purchases that can exert downward pressure on rates or limit increases.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at its highest point in 51 weeks with a divergence in forecasts for what happens between now and the end of the year.

Treasury yields shifted after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, pushing bond traders to pare back their expectations for a hike in September.

Originators need to keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield used in pricing mortgages, which not only broke through 4.6%, climbed above 4.7% on Thursday.

With margins remaining compressed, Bill Cosgrove sees mortgage industry consolidation continuing in the near future, and Union Home will be a player.