Servicing

Over the past 12 months consumers have seen the paper value of their homes rise by $1.1 trillion, the first year-over-year increase in almost four years, according to a new report by Deutsche Bank. DB analysts write that the "upshot" is that household buying power in the first quarter "will show a meaningful improvement relative to recent history." Basing its estimate on figures compiled by the Federal Reserve, DB says home equity grew by $540 billion and $420 billion in the second and third quarters of last year, respectively, and less slowly in the fourth quarter. Even though DB seems somewhat bullish on home values, the housing and mortgage markets fear that when the government halts its MBS buying program on March 31 that rates could rise on 30-year fixed-rate loans, snuffing out an improvement in housing values. Concerns remain on delinquencies and an anticipated wave of foreclosures if both employment and values do not improve over the next two quarters.

The mortgage industry is becoming increasingly worried that if risk retention language for MBS in a new bill from Sen. Chris Dodd is not clarified, nonbanks could disappear, the nation's megabanks will get even larger, and consumers will have fewer retail choices. In particular, mortgage bankers fear that a 5% risk retention requirement will apply to all loans, particularly "A" paper credits guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which currently account for 70% of all fundings. The capital requirement could force small- to medium-sized lenders to either exit mortgage lending/servicing entirely or become correspondents for Wells Fargo, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, the three largest players in residential finance. "This will cause a huge rollup of mortgage bankers," one former MBS trader said. "At a time when the government wants to prevent 'too-big-to-fail' they will be creating more of it. The big banks will be in charge." The Community Mortgage Banking Project, a trade group headed by former mortgage insurance executive Glen Corso, says the new Dodd bill "needs a clear exemption for well underwritten, lower-risk traditional loans." The senator's financial regulatory overhaul bill requires securitizers to retain at least 5% of the credit risk when loans are packaged into bonds. The legislation that Sen. Dodd will mark up next week allows federal banking regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission to reduce the risk retention on loans that exhibit high-quality underwriting. However, the direction given the regulators seems to be very vague when clarity is needed, one source said. Industry groups are urging the lawmakers to create an exemption for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and other "qualified" loans. But the Dodd bill does not provide such a blanket exemption. The regulators also have the discretion to require originators to retain a portion of the credit risk.

Weighted average delinquencies in nonconforming United Kingdom mortgage-backed securities were stable in January, according to Moody's Investors Service. Weighted average delinquencies during the month were 19.3%. This is stable in the short-term and compared to June 2009's high of 21%. "In total, the performance of the UK nonconforming transactions has stabilized in recent months. However, the delinquency levels remain very high, and the prepayment rates remain low," says Georgij Ludmirskij, a Moody's senior associate.

The level of U.S. commercial real estate loan delinquencies in collateralized debt obligations has decreased slightly, according to Fitch Ratings. The CREL CDO delinquency rate in January dropped to 12.5% from 13% as a result of asset managers extending loans and disposing of troubled assets, according to Fitch. But Fitch continues to forecast an increase in delinquencies that will reach 25% by the end of the year. "The credit characteristics of many restructured loans remains questionable," said Fitch senior director Karen Trebach. Fitch's statistics reflect its CREL CDO delinquency index, which includes loans and assets that are 60 days or more delinquent, matured balloon loans and the current month's repurchased assets.

It was a productive year for special servicers in 2009, but there's a lot more where that came from, according to a new Fitch Ratings report. Special servicers resolved $8.7 billion in distressed loans last year, or 50% more than the previous year, but there is $74 billion still left in special servicing, Fitch said. In addition, "Recoveries on loans with losses are down markedly compared to prior years," said Fitch managing director Stephanie Petosa.

The Granite Companies, Denver, Colo., are launching a new division to administer and develop new core business opportunities in public and private commercial construction lending markets. Granite Excell Management will be positioned to provide consulting and other professional services to lenders under the Granite umbrella. "Granite is strategizing for the changes lying ahead," said Bill Cobb, president and co-founder of The Granite Companies. The company said it expects to be in growth mode this year and beyond. Granite's other affiliates include Granite Loan Management, Granite Commercial Management and Granite Construction Inspections. GCM and GLM offer risk mitigation services, including construction REO and workout services, property condition assessment reports, and contractor acceptance. GCI provides residential and commercial property inspection services including construction draw, status/audit, damage assessment, tenant improvement, acquisition and development.

The average age of newly delinquent loans is higher today than in 2007, according to a recent Lender Processing Services report. LPS recently pegged the average age of newly delinquent loans at 46 months, compared to an average of 27 months back in January 2007. The 346,000 borrowers who were delinquent for the first time in January of this year represented 40% of all newly delinquent loans seen during that month, according to LPS.

One third of the streamlined refinanced loans that the Federal Housing Administration insured in 2009 are probably underwater, according to a New York University economics professor. Professor Andrew Caplin and his colleagues at the National Bureau of Economic Research estimate that 33.4% of the 330,000 FHA loans refinanced through the streamlined process during the first nine months of 2009 started out with negative equity. The professor told a congressional panel that the federal mortgage insurance agency and its auditors are underestimating the number of FHA underwater mortgages and the default risk of those loans. FHA doesn't require new appraisals when an existing FHA loan is refinanced, provided borrowers are current on their payments. FHA simply records the value of the property on a streamlined refinancing at the original purchase price, which ignores any decline in home values. In addition, the auditors treat streamlined refinancings as new loans instead of loan modifications. "Misclassification of streamlined refinances not only compromises the [FHA] loss model, but also results in underestimation of underwater mortgages," the professor testified. The NBER economists used the Federal Housing Finance Agency housing price index to estimate the number of underwater loans. "With all other house price indexes, the proportion in negative equity is even higher," Mr. Caplin told the House Financial Services housing subcommittee.

Sales of homes priced above $750,000 are starting to pick up after being frozen at a very low level last year. For most of last year, first time homebuyers were driving sales and they were focused "almost exclusively" on foreclosed properties and other bargains priced under $250,000, according to Walter Moloney, economics spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. "Beginning in October for the first time we started seeing increases in other sales categories," Mr. Maloney said. Sales of homes priced from $750,000 to $1 million jumped 40% in January from a year ago, yet accounted for only 1.3% of total sales. Over 70% of sales in January involved properties priced under $250,000. Sales in all price classes rose in January. "The trade-up market is now beginning to benefit," Mr. Moloney said. Despite this movement in the top tier, foreclosure and short sales are expected to remain at a very high level. Last year, distressed sales comprised 36% of existing home sales. "Maybe it will come down to 33% this year," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. In a normal market, distressed sales make up 15% of sales. "By historical standards, we have never seen anything like this before," Mr. Yun said.

The pace of permanent Home Affordable Mortgage Program loan modifications is now averaging roughly 50,000 a month with the cumbersome government program finally getting its legs. The Treasury Department reported that mortgage servicers completed 54,900 permanent HAMP modifications in February, up from 49,400 the previous month. To date, the Home Affordable Mortgage program has helped 170,200 homeowners secure a permanent modification that reduces the monthly payment on a first mortgage to 31% of income. Another 835,200 borrowers are in HAMP payment trials where their monthly mortgage payment is reduced by more than $500. The Obama administration's signature loan modification program was rolled out one year ago with the first 5,000 permanent modifications completed in October. Housing advocates are critical of the slow start. However, the program is still undergoing changes to simplify and streamline the process, allowing struggling homeowners to move through the three-month payment trials and receive a permanent modification. In addition, Treasury is trying to get banks to modify their second liens. "While we still have some improvements to go, we are making significant progress in terms of home affordable modifications," said HUD secretary Shaun Donovan. As the pace of HAMP modification finally picks up, the monthly activity report is showing more fallout. Treasury reported that 1,473 permanent modifications have been cancelled as of February 28, up from 1,005 in January. In addition, nearly 88,700 borrowers have dropped out of the payment trials, including 28,200 in the month of February.