Baton Rouge Tops List of Cities Expected to Show Price Gains

The fourth quarter home price forecast from Local Market Monitor says the largest market with the best expected performance in home price is Baton Rouge, La. These top markets, identified as those with populations greater than 600,000, include cities in Texas, where good home price increases are likely once the economy improves, and others, notably in New York, where poor economic prospects make future price gains less likely. The other areas on its top markets list are: Columbia, S.C.; Fort Worth-Arlington, Tex.; Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Tex.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.; Pittsburgh; Rochester, N.Y.; San Antonio and Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif. "Even our 'top' markets don't yet show price increases; rather, they're markets where prices will be steady," said Ingo Winzer, president and founder of Local Market Monitor in Cary, N.C. "Significantly, we now see Santa Ana-Anaheim among those markets, with Los Angeles not very far behind, as demand for housing from population growth absorbs excess inventory in Southern California." The largest markets with the worst expected performance in price are Bakersfield, Calif.; Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, Fla.; Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.; Fresno, Calif., Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.; Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.; Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.; Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Oregon-Wash.; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., Stockton, Calif.; and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. Further large decreases will mainly be confined to markets in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, where massive overbuilding took place, the company said. Overall, national home prices in the 3Q2009 were down 5% from a year ago. The company expects to see a further 5% decrease in home prices during the next 12 months, with double-digit decreases in some markets.