First Liens Could Account for 17% of Losses Under 'Stress Tests'

In a hypothetical situation in which the economy is worse than expected over the next two years, the 19 bank holding companies participating in federal "stress tests" would find first-lien mortgages to be responsible for about one-sixth of the losses they would cumulatively have to absorb. This category of losses, estimated to represent $102.3 billion of a total $599.2 billion in losses under the "more adverse" scenario for the BHCs, was the largest in the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program report. The next largest category was second/junior lien mortgages, which was estimated in the scenario to potentially account for $83.2 billion of losses. Commercial real estate loans was the fourth largest category of potential losses, behind commercial and industrial loans. Potential losses tied to these categories were respectively estimated at $53 billion and $60.1 billion.