Fitch: Commercial Real Estate Becoming More Volatile

The commercial real estate sector has shown signs of increased market volatility across all major sector types, according to Fitch Ratings' latest annual U.S. Property Market Metric update report. With the average cash flow volatility score rising to 3.62 in 2008 from 2.98 in 2007, volatility in commercial real estate has reached its highest levels since Fitch launched its PMM scores in 2000. The office sector was hit the hardest, with the average volatility score jumping to 3.68 last year from 2.62 in 2007. The office markets showed greater volatility in the three largest metropolitan statistical areas: New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. Multifamily properties' average volatility scores jumped to 3.15 in 2008 from 2.5 in 2007, with San Francisco, Phoenix and Miami among the more volatile markets. Retail markets also reflected more volatility with a 3.7 average PMM score last year as opposed to 3.12 in 2007. Several MSAs in Texas were affected, including Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston.