Fitch: New U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Slowing Down

The aggregate nonagency mortgage loan roll rates from current to delinquent have significantly improved, dropping to their lowest levels since early 2007, according to Fitch Ratings.

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Fitch's Delinquency Roll Rate index shows the rate of private-label new delinquencies trended down across all sectors, from 2.4% in 1Q13 and 2.2% in 2Q12 to 2% in 2Q13.

Analysts credit home price increases, steady job growth “and positive selection among borrowers remaining in the mortgage pools.”

Fitch director Sean Nelson noted, however, that rates of new mortgage delinquencies are seasonal and have a tendency to drop to their lowest level in the second quarter mainly because borrowers receive tax refunds they typically use to pay their mortgage debt.

But despite that seasonal effect, he added, second-quarter roll rates have improved year-over-year since 2010 indicating a wider trend.

Nonetheless, the index, which measures the percentage of previously performing loans that become delinquent among U.S. private-label, securitized mortgage loans, Fitch said, also indicates prime mortgage loans originated before 2005 that “continue to struggle due to concentrations of adversely selected borrowers” remain an area of concern.


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