MBA Chief Fears Post-Boom Fallout

The mortgage industry is not likely to have a "soft landing" when the current refi boom ends, according to John Courson, chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.Speaking at the Western Secondary Market and Mortgage Bankers Conference in San Francisco, Mr. Courson said, "My fear is we will not do any better this time coming out of it than we did the last two times." If there is not a soft landing, there will probably be a lot of shake-out in the industry, Mr. Courson said. He pointed out that experts such as Fannie Mae economist David Berson see refinancings falling from $2.4 trillion this year to $800 billion in 2004. There is "an awful lot of infrastructure" that will be affected by such a dropoff, he said, and mortgage bankers could see a profit squeeze as a result. "A large part of the industry could have a difficult time coming out of the refi boom," Mr. Courson said. The MBA chairman is the president and chief executive of Central Pacific Mortgage, a 100-branch retail lender operating in small markets in 20 states.