NAR: CRE Recovery Linked to War

The timing of recovery in the commercial real estate market will depend largely on the length of the war in Iraq, according to the National Association of Realtors.Barring a prolonged conflict, a gradual recovery is expected as a result of rising net absorption and moderating development in the fourth quarter of last year, as well as a turnaround in business spending and expected job growth, the NAR said in its Commercial Real Estate Quarterly report. NAR chief economist David Lereah said a relatively brief war that removes uncertainty would lead to a faster job recovery. "Under this scenario, stronger job growth will strengthen leasing activity and greatly improve the commercial market outlook over the next two years," Mr. Lereah said. "At this point, we project one million new jobs in 2003, with the momentum creating more jobs next year. The economy is expected to pick up speed in the second half of this year, brightening the commercial real estate outlook." The association can be found online at http://realtor.org.