In 1997 there was no Google. In 2002 there was no Facebook. There was no Twitter in 2004, and the iPad only made its debut in 2009. There is no indication that the pace of innovation will slow, so how can you plan for the future when the target is moving, and moving quickly?
At a corporate level, three-and-five-year strategic plans are being shredded by external market shifts that change the very assumptions on which the plans are based.
At the personal level, many are finding it tough to keep up, and are "opting out": either purposefully avoiding science and technology, or lashing out at society.
There may not be a simple answer to the question of how to plan when change is constant, but here is some perspective that might help:
1. Be the change: If there will be change, it is far better to be setting the agenda, than reacting to it. This suggests that organizations that are flexible, entrepreneurial and invest in "the new" will be more successful than those who are set-up only for the status quo.
2. People are key: Dofasco, a large steel mill, used to advertise, "Our product is steel – our strength is people." While the name may have changed slightly (they were acquired), the slogan stands: A thinking workforce that can track the market and reinvent itself as conditions change is critical. Furthermore, within each organization there is an internal social network, teams, processes and infrastructure that functions because of the people. To do list: recruit the best, invest in them, and let them reinvent themselves—and the organization.
3. Partnerships: No longer can one entity hope to have 100% of the skills internally for any eventuality—or to take advantage of any immediate opportunity. Partnerships can be set up for the long or short term, for all or some of the value chain, to provide a non-core capability, or to provide peak production capacity. Planning for an uncertain future requires an understanding that anything might actually be possible, when looking beyond your internal capability.
4. Intellectual property: We're only now seeing the beginning of the patent wars between Microsoft, Google, Apple, Samsung, and others. These organizations have realized that a sustainable competitive advantage is only sustainable if they have something unique that differentiates them in the market. IP does this, and so does brand. Not surprisingly there is a direct connection between the quality of the people, and the quality of the IP. In an uncertain future, IP is critical: can be exploited, licensed, and sold.
5. Competitive intelligence and market research: Especially amongst larger organizations, it's too easy to focus on the internal, instead of the external. A sensitive antenna—market research and competitive intelligence—provides an early warning of potential paradigm shifts. And this early warning allows the organization to react accordingly.
6. Directional planning: While three-year strategic plans will always be done, a slight shift in approach can increase the organization's resilience. Instead of choosing an endpoint, and then choosing tactics to achieve that goal, consider the opposite approach: Set the direction first and then forecast the year one-two-three endpoints. If there are any major market changes, then a mid-course correction can easily be made, and new end-points can be established.
Planning for an uncertain future is difficult, but it can be made far easier when the organization itself is built to thrive in a changing world.
Randall Craig is the president of Pinetree Advisors Inc., Toronto. For more, visit
