Some United Kingdom Nonconforming Losses Seen Doubling

Weighted-average delinquencies and cumulative losses in the United Kingdom's securitized residential mortgages have doubled since the first quarter of last year, according to Moody's Investors Service's index. These had reached 18.0% and 0.78%, respectively, by the end of the first quarter of this year. "While a number of forward looking indicators point towards the pace of the economic decline abating, consensus forecasts look for 3.8% contraction in [gross domestic product] over 2009 as a whole, which will be the worst yearly growth rate since modern records began in 1949," said Nitesh Shah, a Moody's economist and co-author of a report on the index. "The U.K. unemployment rate was 7.1% in the three months [leading up] to March, up from 5.2% a year ago. As the economy contracts, more jobs are expected to be removed from the market." In addition, Moody's noted that home price declines also contributed. The downward slide in housing values will likely continue even though the monthly pace of the decrease has been slowing, Moody's said.