It might be said that 2008 represents the quartet harvest of seeds planted years ago — required financial re-balancing, technological advancements, the fourth iteration of globalization, and hyper-appreciation for basic commodities. Yet as we struggle with survival, does the harvest present only suffering or is there opportunity beyond selling loans to the GSE’s?
Further, where and when should investments be made in staffing, infrastructure, applications, knowledge outsourcing/sourcing, and partnerships? Have we reached capitulation or merely a one-off hope?
Globally, IT spending has been surprisingly resilient during the last two years — even in the face of layoffs and increased outsourcing. The mandates for efficiency have created a stampede for electronic capture, delivery, and storage of “artifacts.” Those demands are now being augmented by new solutions for fraud, compliance, and “green” operations. Lenders are pushing for change faster and vendors are struggling to meet divergent requests for competitive differentiations. We have industry movement, but is there a common direction?
For chief strategists and organizational advisors, the models and projections of the past offer little solace of the future turmoil and the path to prosperity. Perhaps that is why there have been many high profile departures and hiring’s of key “thought leaders” since the first of the year. Boards, investors, and “c-levels” are asking for survival and growth ideas — but the channel seems to be tuned into the “oldies” station hoping for a reprieve. Even our storied leaders are now capitulating to change — starting with new ideas and personnel once shunned as secondary or irrelevant — domestic outsourcing/sourcing, “e”-options, forward and reverse supply chains, mobile delivery, and iterative restructurings.
However, since none of us are omnipresent and our crystal balls have been less than reliable, we need to frame the events of the past in a framework for understanding and subsequent action. We need more than a slogan, a singular principle, or a marketing gimmick. As indicated in the figure below, I believe that we are finally entering the third of four stages associated with business rebirth and technological adoption.Whereas, the model is drawn serially, “states of influence” can and will exist across several silos simultaneously. Therefore, as many of you are actively experiencing, the rate of adoption for new or adaptive solution sets may not seem obvious. For technologists, solutions must be framed within the confines of the specific initiative, while preparing for multi-faceted touchpoints once ignored. For business personnel, the vendor lock-in and one-off operating unit priorities are dynastic symbols of a time gone.
The investment and operational insulation once tolerated and intertwined within stoic budget processes must be jettisoned with great haste. Geographic-centric teams and idea build out must be stamped out in favor of virtual, collaborative operations — location, location, location has lost its remarkable shine when it comes to innovation.
In general during this period of capitulation, organizations are locked in fear of what is the most important and should “I pull the trigger?” Making matters worse is the loss of trust and staff that has driven operational decisions during the last 24 months. As the 2009 budget cycle begins to ramp up, many leaders and profit-loss rewarded managers are striving to rebuild their teams to take advantage of the “next cycle.” However, using the mindset of prior events and cycles will not be a wise choice. Just ask those workers and organizations that have been terminated and the homeowners and politicians demanding retribution.
So, with mortgage and FSI innovation resembling a bizarre Machiavellian tome, the challenge for technologist and the business operatives that fund those endeavors will be “what should I do?” I, for one, believe that it is time to “change the channel” allowing new innovations and new personnel the opportunity to excel within the organizations, at conferences, and within the media. More of the same in a new wrapper is not operationally beneficial no matter how much marketing and PR is thrown at it. If we don’t depart from the dogma and their iconic handlers, how many of us will be around 12 months from now? Will you?
