In another sign of a slowdown in the housing recovery, home values ticked up by 1.5% in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, in the 12 months ending in November, the S&P/Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday.
Nationally, home values rose 4.7%, a slower pace than earlier in the year.
"Prospects for a home run [in housing] in 2015 aren't good," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Strong price gains are limited to California, Florida, the Pacific Northwest, Denver and Dallas. Most of the rest of the country is lagging the national index gains. Moreover, these price patterns have been in place since last spring. Existing-home sales were lower in 2014 than 2013, confirming these trends."
"Difficulties facing the housing recovery include continued low inventory levels and stiff mortgage qualification standards," Blitzer continued. "The best hope for housing is the rest of the economy, where the news is better. Consumer confidence, helped by cheap gasoline prices, is strong, and a good GDP number is expected this week."
Economists Stephanie Karol and Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight had a more positive view of the Case-Shiller numbers.
"Price growth is stabilizing in the 4%-5% range: a healthy sign," the two said in a research note.
Even so, home values in the region are the same as they were in mid-2004, and still about 19% below their peaks in mid-2006. Nationally, home values are back to the levels of autumn 2004, and 16% to 17% below their mid-2006 peaks.
The housing market’s slow recovery in New Jersey reflects the job market's path. While the state's unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% in December, it remains higher than the national rate of 5.6%. The Garden State still hasn't come close to recovering all the jobs lost during the 2007-09 recession.
And although mortgage rates are very low — in the 4% range — many households have been locked out because lenders tightened their standards after the excesses of the housing boom. In New Jersey, a backlog of properties in the foreclosure pipeline also is weighing on the housing market.
Case-Shiller does not break down home values by county. But according to the New Jersey Realtors trade group, single-family home prices in November inched up 0.7% from a year earlier to a median $433,125 in Bergen County, and slid 4% to a median $285,000 in Passaic County. Those numbers are affected by the mix of properties sold during the month, while Case-Shiller tracks the value of the same properties over time.
©2015 The Record (Hackensack, N.J.). Distributed by Tribune Content Agency
