Rocket, Mr. Cooper merger: HMDA data reveals market impact

Rocket Mortgage is buying Mr. Cooper in what could be a transformative deal for the industry, so we looked at what it might mean for mortgage production based on select Home Mortgage Disclosure Act datasets.

An analysis of available 2024 HMDA data through iEmergent shows that while Mr. Cooper's servicing strength could eventually help Rocket compete with its closest origination rival, the combination alone won't immediately change its ranking.

What follows below are some numbers behind that conclusion and others reached based on modified loan-application register data. All combined numbers are pro forma as the acquisition has not closed, but it is expected to receive the regulatory approvals needed to do so in 2025.

How combined annual originations compare to rival UWM

Rocket originated $97,556,665,000 in loans based on unpaid principal balance and Mr. Cooper produced $8,290,755,000 last year.
Based on total dollar volume in 2024, Mr. Cooper is No. 30 and Rocket is No. 2 currently. Combined, their originations in 2024 would be almost $105.85 billion, which still wouldn't have been enough to beat the current leader, United Wholesale Mortgage, at nearly $139.72 billion.

The HMDA data also confirms other numbers that suggest even if Rocket added the pro forma volume from its pending acquisition of Redfin (its Bay Equity mortgage unit originated a little over $3.98 billion in 2024), it still wouldn't match United Wholesale. 

(The Redfin acquisition is facing a legal challenge from an investor.)

Loan count numbers also show UWM leading with 491,641 mortgages originated in 2024, compared with a total of 412,515 if Rocket, Mr. Cooper and Bay Equity were merged.

Rocket has a higher pull-through rate

Applications at Rocket totaled 497,525 in 2024. Mr. Cooper only processed 64,996 apps during the same period.

Rocket's total loan count for originations was 361,071 vs. Mr. Cooper's 41,693. That means that nearly 73% of Rocket's loans close, compared with over 64% of Mr. Cooper's. UWM pull-though rate is in the same range as Rocket's but a little higher.

The comparison could have implications for how systems evolve as Rocket and Mr. Cooper combine.

A reliance on refinances and a second-lien comparison

More than half of Rocket's mortgages were refinances last year, and a higher share of Mr. Cooper's loan by dollar volume are second liens.

Rocket product breakdown was: 56.3% refi, 37.9% purchase, and 5.8% other. Mr. Cooper's was 47.2% refi, just 11.8% purchase and 41% other.

The volume of subordinate liens at each were as follows: almost $5.35 billion or nearly 5.5% of the total at Rocket and more than 13% of a little over $1.11 billion for Mr. Cooper.

Rocket has diversified more outside of its core business

Both Rocket and Mr. Cooper are primarily conforming lenders but the former does lean a little bit more into government products. Neither are big jumbo lenders, but Rocket does originate and securitize some loans outside the conforming limit.

Rocket's loan product share based on application count was: conforming 70.5%; FHA 20.5%, VA 8.0%, and jumbo 1.0%. Mr. Cooper's was: conforming: 77.3%, FHA 15.4%, VA 7.3%, and jumbo 0.1%. (The available data examines product share based on applications.)

How Rocket and Mr. Cooper loan sizes compare

Last year's first and second lien production combined show the average loan size of $198,852 at Mr. Cooper is below Rocket's $270,187. Rocket's loan size is fairly close to the industry average of $298,213. Rival United Wholesale Mortgage's is $381,633.

The largest mortgage companies have relatively modest loan sizes in the broader scheme of things, with the highest average loan size in the HMDA data topping $5 million and the lowest reported being $39,286.

This shows that the companies with the largest total originations are able to do it without leaning too heavily on high-balance loans.

Smaller home-equity loan sizes reduce the averages across liens. Comparisons for first liens alone are as follows: United Wholesale, $396,612; Rocket, $307,947; and Mr. Cooper, $284,180. The industry average for that category is $352,892.
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