A UBS Securities economist says he expects prices of existing homes to decline 15% before the housing market recovers and that prices could fall even further if excess supplies are not quickly reduced.UBS Securities economist Maury Harris noted that house prices have declined by 5% already and said he expects another 10% decline because of the tightening of mortgage credit and surging foreclosures. These "unprecedented" factors are making it "unusually difficult" to reduce the large inventory of unsold single-family homes, including a 5.1-month supply of vacant properties. "Unless excess supplies are quickly reduced," home prices could fall by 20%, he said. Last year, Mr. Harris forecast a 10% decline in home prices from peak to trough.

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