Home buying migration trends are going backward: Redfin

Strained affordability and challenges to remote work opportunities have contributed to the lowest share of home buyers relocating in 18 months, Redfin reports. 

The 23.9% share of movers between September and November, down from 24.1% a year earlier, is the first annual decline in Redfin records dating back to 2017, the brokerage said. Relocations fell for the third consecutive month and are down from a record high of 26% over the summer.

Besides lofty mortgage rates and weighty principal and interest payments, Redfin pins some of the migration slowdown on employer constraints on remote work, which enabled more home buying moves during the coronavirus pandemic. Prices have since risen in cheaper destinations like Florida and Boise, Idaho, and locales like Sacramento and Las Vegas now top the top metros homebuyers are looking to move to. 

"Prices in Sacramento — the most popular destination this month — are up about 35% since before the pandemic, compared with an 8% increase in the Bay Area," wrote Dana Anderson, data journalist at Redfin. 

Los Angeles for the first time topped Redfin's rankings of metros buyers are looking to leave, followed by San Francisco and New York. The 10 most popular migration destinations by net inflow of searchers all had lower home prices than the most common origin of buyers coming in. 

The brokerage determined the coveted destinations through its data of over 2 million Redfin users who viewed homes for sale online across over 100 metros. 

Homeowners are also showing less interest in leaving their city limits — while there was a 4% drop annually in searches for a new metro, there was a 3% decrease in queries within the homebuyer's city. Despite the negative trends, migration rates are still well above pre-pandemic levels around 19%.