Industry Icon Sees 'Spectacular' 1st Half

Mortgage industry icon Felix Beck says the industry will see "spectacular volume" in the first six months of this year.He predicts that $1.25 trillion in originations will be recorded in the first half of 2003, but that volumes will fall to $800-850 billion in the second half. Speaking at the Regional Conference of Mortgage Bankers Associations in Atlantic City, N.J., Mr. Beck reviewed a number of economic scenarios involving a conflict in Iraq. The most likely scenario, he said, is a short war and a difficult occupation. Because of that, Mr. Beck sees a short-term rally in the stock market as the uncertainty is lifted, and a rise in rates. But after the initial euphoria wears off, he said he has concerns about interest rate levels. Mr. Beck is chairman emeritus of Chase Manhattan Mortgage.