LoanPerformance, a San Francisco-based provider of residential mortgage data and analytics, has announced the release of version 3.1 of its RiskModel forecasting tool for mortgage defaults, losses, prepayments, and delinquencies.RiskModel 3.1 features new statistical models for alternative-A and prime loans and delivers "dramatic improvement" in performance based on back-tests of over 4 million loans and over 1,700 securities, the company declared. Among the enhancements to the tool are: the addition of 12-month loan payment history as an optional input; the addition of a new payment shock variable for adjustable-rate mortgages; and explicit modeling of teaser rates and of the impact of housing price appreciation on prepayments. "Our goal is to predict the future rather than match or 'over-fit' the past," said Ralph DeFranco, the product manager of RiskModel. The company can be found online at http://www.loanperformance.com.

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