Mortgage lender jobs fall as rate relief hopes fade

Mortgage broker jobs have risen slightly but origination hiring overall has remained under duress amid broader U.S. employment strength that has further diminished hopes for a rate cut.

The estimate of broker positions rose to 86,200 in February from an upwardly revised 85,500 in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Real-estate credit jobs slipped to 183,700 from 185,800. In total, nonbank mortgage banker and broker positions fell to 269,900 from 271,300.

Overall U.S. jobs, which the BLS reports with less of a lag, increased by 303,000 in March, outpacing earlier consensus estimates for a gain of around 200,000 as unemployment dropped to 3.8% from 3.9% the previous month.

"Expectations for rate cuts have crashed, and the majority expect three or fewer," said Odeta Kushi, chief economist at First American, in published commentary on the job numbers, noting forecasts have come down from late-2023 predictions for as many as six or seven this year.

Also, mortgage rate forecasts are being revised downward, she noted, pointing to Fannie Mae's recent increase in its year-end number to 6.4% from previous projections just below 5%.

While broker jobs are less numerous than those offered by lenders, they tend to fluctuate less in a market with relatively higher rates because third-party originators have an edge in outreach to the home-purchase borrower segment that's more prominent in that environment.

However, brokers can face a challenge in that lenders generally look for cost savings through third-party originations and margins can waver as a business cycle grows long in the tooth. That said, multichannel nonbanks had more favorable fourth-quarter results than their peers.

The origination sector typically considers staffing up for a possible uptick in business during the spring homebuying season, so the latest job numbers and interest rate forecasts may lead to some deliberation in decisions on the extent that companies want to do that.

Investment in loan production positions may be helpful this spring given what could be a peak business season during the year, but companies will have to think about how much of a return they'll get for it.

Mortgage rates are currently down a little from their peak last year, which has exposed some recent borrowers to refinancing incentives even though many older ones are "locked in" because they have loans originated at record-low rates.

"A 6.4% mortgage rate is still lower than today's rates, so buyers sitting on the sidelines may still see a house-buying power boost by the end of the year," Kushi said.

Another potential consideration for the origination side of the business in staffing decisions is the availability of affordable home inventory. 

The latest employment numbers are promising in that regard, according to Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"Although the jobs gains remain concentrated in sectors like healthcare, government, and leisure and hospitality, there was also a pickup in construction hires, a position for the housing market given the lack of supply," he said in commentary published Friday.

The latest BLS numbers show the construction industry added 39,000 net jobs, according to analysis done by the National Association of Realtors, which noted in commentary Friday that the strength in industry employment did have some upsides for the residential sector.

"More housing supply is on the way in future months. More jobs mean more potential housing demand in the future," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in the report.