Mortgage rates fell but are shifting after FOMC forecast

Mortgage rates slid this week, but experts said they don't expect the trend to last after a terse interest rate message from the Federal Reserve. 

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.47% as of Thursday, down five basis points from a week ago, Freddie Mac reported. The 15-year FRM also dropped three basis points to 5.81%, according to Freddie's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. 

Chief Economist Sam Khater, in Thursday's press release, said the data reflects a "resilient consumer," with purchase demand modestly improving. Today's housing market is busier than it was last spring, as rates are down double-digit basis points on an annual basis. 

The 30-year FRM however isn't likely to return to its pre-war lows. Rather, it has hovered in the mid-6% range for almost a month. There was some slight relief this week as the Iran War appeared to approach an end, but yesterday's Fed meeting and projections of raising rates later this year drove volatility in Treasury yields. 

"While progress in Iran could reduce some of the upward pressure, the fallout from the Fed meeting is likely to keep mortgage rates from dropping too much," said NerdWallet Lending Expert Kate Wood in emailed comments. 

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh yesterday emphasized his goal to tame inflation, but he did not offer his own forward guidance on rate movements. Half of Fed members indicated they expect to raise rates by the end of the year. 

Two-year Treasury yields shot up 13 basis points on the news yesterday to around 4.17%, in their biggest jump on an FOMC day since 2008, while 10-year Treasury yields were at 4.44% Thursday afternoon, dipping slightly from an open at 4.47%. 

How the housing market is faring

Despite the unease around the Fed, experts agreed with Khater's assessments that the market is still in a stronger position than it was last spring. Oil prices are beginning to fall, but inflation will take some time to ease. 

"At the same time, upward revisions in the latest employment report suggest the labor market is firmer than previously measured," said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, in emailed comments. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association this week reported that purchase and refinance application volume remains up on a year-over-year basis, although interest in home loans has wavered in recent weeks. 

Fitch Ratings Senior Director Eric Orenstein, commenting yesterday on the Fed results, cautioned lenders that rates are unlikely to dip below 6% this year.

"Lenders benefited from multiple refi-rallies over the last 9 months, but we don't expect another in 2026," he said.