Mortgage rates see little movement, but signs point to changes ahead

Average fixed-term mortgage rates stayed under 3% for a third straight week, but an improving jobs outlook and economy may soon reverse the trend of declining rates over the past two months.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nudged down slightly to 2.96% from 2.98% one week ago, hitting its lowest point since late February, according to the most recent Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey published Thursday. The rate is well below the average of 3.26% from the same week one year ago.

Freddie Mac 30-year FRM, May 6, 2021.jpeg

The recent decline in interest rates and soaring personal incomes are currently favorable for the home buying market, according to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

“Consumer income and spending are picking up, which is leading to an acceleration in economic growth. The combination of low and stable rates, coupled with an improving economy is good for homebuyers,” he said.

However, low rates and a shortage of inventory on the market have led to bidding wars and rising prices for homes, resulting in an increase in the size of the average new mortgage. Such conditions have contributed to an overall reduction in the volume of loan applications.

The average rate of 15-year fixed-term mortgages also remained relatively flat, falling only one basis point week-over-week from 2.31% to 2.3%. One year ago, the average was 2.73%. But the 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage showed a slight increase, rising to 2.7% compared to 2.64% the previous week, and well below the rate of 3.14% the same week in 2020.

Developments over the past week hint that higher interest rates could be in the offing. In an interview released on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that rates may need to “rise somewhat” to prevent an overheating economy during a post-pandemic recovery, though she later clarified that her comment shouldn’t be characterized as a recommendation. The Federal Reserve has continued to say that interest rates will remain low in the near term.

The release of the U.S. government’s April employment numbers and other data later this week may go further toward determining the trajectory Treasury yields and corresponding interest rates take this year, said Zillow economist Matthew Speakman. Initial data shows U.S. hiring on an upswing.

“April employment figures and inflation data, two key gauges of the economy’s path forward, are due this week, and stronger-than-expected readings of either — or both — reports will likely revert mortgage rates back upward,” Speakman said in a statement.

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