NAHB Forecasts Home Sales Bottom in 1Q

The decline in single-family home sales should hit bottom in the first quarter of 2008 after completing a 40% drop since the end of the 2003-2005 housing boom, according to economists at the National Association of Home Builders.Despite a projection that sales will begin to move upward slowly in the second quarter, NAHB chief economist David Seiders is forecasting that 2008 home sales will be off 5.6% from this year's pace. "Home sales should bottom out by the end of the first quarter of 2008, and I have starts up in the third quarter of next year, assuming the inventory overhang stabilizes," Mr. Seiders said at the NAHB's construction forecast conference. The association is forecasting that new-home sales will drop by 21.2% this year, to 828,000, and by another 5.6% in 2008, to 781,000 -- which is on par with sales in the late 1990s. The association can be found online at http://www.nahb.com.