NAR: Turnaround Around the Corner

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index increased only slightly in September, but this belies the fact that 2007 should go down as the fifth-best year ever for existing-home sales, the group's chief economist said at its annual convention in Las Vegas.Moreover, economist Lawrence Yun said, it masks a marked improvement for 2008, as the long-hoped-for housing recovery begins to take seed. "The pace of the recovery in '08 is still a bit uncertain," he said. But as the impact of the credit crunch continues to subside and pent-up demand is unleashed, the NAR forecaster is predicting that resales should edge up from 5.67 million this year to 5.69 million next year as activity increases in each subsequent quarter. Stressing the new NAR mantra that "all real estate is local," Mr. Yun said national overviews are important for policy-making decisions but that local data are more important for "everyday consumers." He pointed out that markets such as Austin, Texas, and Raleigh, N.C., have been going strong throughout the downturn, and others, such as Denver and Boston, are already showing early signs of recovery. At the same time, though, Detroit, suffering from three straight years of job losses, is in dire shape; Sarasota, Fla., is showing close to a double-digit price decline after experiencing one of the strongest booms in the country; and California's inland counties are questionable. The NAR can be found online at http://www.realtor.org.