PMI: 1 in 6 Chance of General Home Price Drop

There is better than a one-in-six chance of a general decline in home prices over the next two years, according to the PMI Risk Index.The average value of the index for the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas stood at 186 in November, up from 171 in August, said PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the Walnut Creek, Calif.-based mortgage insurer that created the index. The index value means that these MSAs have on average an 18.6% probability of experiencing a home price decline in the next two years. San Jose, Calif., topped the index with a 509 (and therefore a 50.9% chance of a decline), followed by Boston, with 483, and Oakland, Calif., with 473. San Francisco and San Diego ranked fifth and sixth, with 419 and 405, respectively, and New York ranked seventh, at 383. PMI can be found online at http://www.pmigroup.com.