PMI: Home Price Drop Risk Up in Some MSAs

The risk of home price declines in the nation's 50 largest housing markets is still rising in states where price growth has far exceeded historical norms, but has begun to decline elsewhere, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., Walnut Creek, Calif. According to the PMI U.S. Market Risk Index, there are now 13 markets with a greater than 60% chance of price declines over the next two years. Risk is largely concentrated in various MSAs in California and Florida as well as in Las Vegas and Phoenix, PMI reported. "Excess supply is responsible for much of the risk we're seeing in the market," said David W. Berson, chief economist and strategist for The PMI Group. "The excess supply of housing in the United States is 9.2 months for existing homes (the 20-year average has been 6.0) and 9.8 months for new homes (the 20-year average has been 5.5), which will continue to depress prices for MSAs in risk ranks 1 and 2." PMI can be found online at http://www.pmigroup.com.