There is roughly a one-in-six chance of a general decline in home prices over the next two years, according to the PMI Risk Index, which rose 12 points in the fourth quarter.The average value of the index for the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas stood at 174 at the end of the fourth quarter, said PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the Walnut Creek, Calif.-based mortgage insurer that created the index. The index value means that these cities have on average a 17.4% probability of experiencing a home price decline in the next two years. PMI noted that San Jose, Calif., which topped the index with a 468, as well as Portland, Ore., with 353, and Charlotte, N.C., with 346, are higher-risk MSAs that experienced increases in their risk index average. They have suffered from higher-than-average unemployment rates and low or negative job creation rates, PMI said.

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