U.K. Lending Could Show Year-to-Year Improvement

The United Kingdom's year-to-year gross mortgage lending could slow down a bit on a monthly basis in coming months but it might start to look a little better on a year-to-year basis. "The sharp drop in lending volumes at end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 should lead to a relative improvement in year-to-year comparisons, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, London. But on a monthly basis lending could see its usual seasonal declines. In the latest month, October, U.K. gross mortgage lending was 13.5 billion pounds ($22.3 billion). This was up the usual seasonal 5% from the previous month but down 27% from the same month a year ago. The CML said this is in line with its most recent forecast of about 141 billion pounds ($233 billion) in gross mortgage lending for 2009 as a whole. "There has been a significant change in the type of lending taking place from the start of the year. House purchase activity has picked up significantly," said CML economist Paul Samter. He added that, in contrast, refinancing has dropped to record lows. However, he said the coming months "are likely to be dominated by seasonal factors rather than underlying change."