Here are some indicators to watch in the months ahead: Oil is now at $32.65 a barrel, and the 10-year Treasuryis at 4.05%. Mortgages are tied to the 10-year. Goods and products -- including lumber and gypsum board which gointo new homes -- are shipped via rail and truck. If oil keeps rising can U.S. home buyers (potential mortgageapplicants) anticipate a rise in new home prices? If yes, the average new mortgage will rise in terms of dollars.The stock market was off to a roaring start on January 2 which means bonds went the other way. Of course, overthe past three years most rallies have turned out to be nothing more than "bear" traps...
At a recent press briefing Fannie Mae chief economist David Berson was asked about the economic"worst case" scenario if a potential war with Iraq does not go well. His response? That oil could riseto $70 to $80 a barrel. "That's if things go badly," he cautioned. It's a good thing mortgage lendersdon't make loans backed by SUVs...
Mr. Berson also predicted that mortgage debt could rise by 8% this year compared to 11% in 2002 and 10% in 2001...
In a recent interview with National Mortgage News, MorTech chief Jeff Lebowitz predictedthat Alltel's mortgage business would be bought by Fiserv. Mr. Lebowitz, who recently relocated toConnecticut, also predicted that Fannie Mae would "spin-off" some of its e-commerce activities...
In a recent analyst note Morgan Stanley predicted that growth in Countrywide's bank portfolioand its captive mortgage reinsurance unit could push the company's "normalized" return on equity to 15%from 12%. Countrywide is the third largest residential originator in the U.S., according to the QuarterlyData Report...
The Department of Housing and Urban Development has increased the FHA loan limit to $280,749 in "highcost" areas...
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Credit unions are eyeing the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. Ina move that could add greater liquidity to the market for commercial MBS, the National Credit Union Administrationhas proposed allowing the nation's 6,000 federally chartered credit unions to invest in securities backed by commercialmortgages or by a mix of residential and commercial mortgages...
