Loan Think

What We're Hearing

The 10-year Treasury is the God of mortgage banking and smart mortgage bankers watch the yield like a hawk.And what they've been watching is the yield rise from 3.07% to 4.65% in about two months. Refi applications arefalling like a rock, and a few mortgage-related M&A deals are being scuttled because the price being discussedno longer makes sense. Also, there has been one rumor making the rounds on Wall Street that a large mortgage-relatedentity -- no one is naming names quite yet -- has, in the words of two industry veterans, "blown up."What is meant by blown up is unclear, but the feeling is that when rates move as much as they have in such a shortperiod of time, there has to be at least a few casualties, that is, firms that bet the wrong way on interest rates.Stay tuned...

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Even with rates rising and refis declining, the general outlook for mortgage banking is good. Countrywidechief Angelo Mozilo is forecasting a $2 trillion year in 2004, which according to the Quarterly DataReport, would make it the third or fourth best year ever for the industry. Still, some mortgage executives,including Mr. Mozilo, do not see the yield on the 10-year falling anytime soon. Former Federal Deposit InsuranceCorp. chairman Bill Seidman noted last week that the yield on Treasuries has been "artificially"low...

Some mortgage lenders are starting to cut "temp" jobs. And in the words of one advisor, "Thistime around they are not going to give it all back." The reference means this: that mortgage lenders willcut costs fast, very fast, and not delay in keeping unnecessary workers around. See Monday's National MortgageNews for details...

The power outage in the Northeast and Midwest on Thursday afternoon undoubtedly resulted in many a mortgageclosing getting cancelled on Friday. How many loans were delayed? It's hard to say. The New York MBA, forone, wasn't answering its phones...

It's been almost a year since Citigroup acquired CalFed Inc., and its mortgage subsidiary FirstNationwide Mortgage Corp. But if you drive by FNMC's headquarters in Frederick, Md., you can still see theFNMC sign out front. Citigroup has yet to change it...

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on Fannie Mae, giving the secondary market giant a gradeof "in-line." In a research note, Goldman writes: "With its excellent management and outstandingearnings growth record, Fannie Mae is attractively valued for patient investors." Meanwhile, MDB CapitalGroup, is calling Fannie a "sell," citing, among other things, its exposure to synthetic fuel taxcredits...

WASHINGTON NEWS: The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, hintingthat it may not make a change for a considerable amount of time as the economy attempts to rouse itself from aslowdown. The Fed said there are signs that spending was firming, but the labor market still looks weak...

MORTGAGE LENDERS YOU MAY'VE NEVER HEARD OF: Cascade Bank of Washington funded $79.3 million inloans during the second quarter, a 91% gain from the same quarter a year ago. The company services almost $500million in loans. Acoustic Home Loans of California is now up and running. The brainchild of former LongBeach Mortgage executive Frank Curry, the company hopes to fund $200 million by year-end...

MORTGAGE PEOPLE: Washington Mutual has hired Scott Gaspard to manage its government andindustry relations group. He will work on public policy and legislative activities nationwide. Most recently, hewas president of the Washington Financial League and the administrative director of the Washington MortgageLenders Association.  Countrywide has named Rodolfo Saenz executive vice president of businessdevelopment, emerging markets. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight spokeswoman Stefanie Mullinhas left the agency. American Banker reporter and deputy bureau chief Rob Garver who has donesome of the best reporting on the John Korsmo political fund raiser scandal (Korsmo is chairman of the FederalHousing Finance Board) is leaving the newspaper to attend graduate school. American Banker and National MortgageNews are both owned by Thomson Media...

FREDDY vs. JASON: Okay, Freddie Mac isn't suing anyone named Jason, but a new slasher movie ofthe same name opened Thursday. Freddie Mac, though is now the subject of a several lawsuits filed by angry shareholders(including two states and a Teamster pension fund) that are less than happy that the value of their Freddie shareshas been, well, slashed...

THE CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR'S RACE & THE MORTGAGE MARKET: Among the 150 or so candidates is DouglasAnderson, a mortgage broker from Ventura, Calif. No surprise here: He's running as a Republican. But my personalfavorite is Jack Grisham, former head of True Sounds of Liberty (TSOL), a hardcore band that I listenedto 20 years ago. Go Jack! Keep in mind that California accounts for 20% of the mortgage market...

UPCOMING MEETINGS: MBA move over. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers is branchingout into the commercial market, a strong niche for MBA. In mid-October the broker trade group will hold a two-daysymposium on commercial lending. The meeting is geared toward both novices and seasoned pros. Also, Wachoviais holding sits 7th Annual Real Estate Securities Conference December 3-4...

MORTGAGE DATA: National Mortgage News is about to release the second quarter edition of the QuarterlyData Report which includes 50 tables, including rankings on the top prime and subprime lenders and servicers. Alsoavailable: the new "Mortgage Broker Database" which provides information on the top 400 broker producers,and their top loan officers. For more information email: Deartra.Todd@ThomsonMedia.com...


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