Real Estate Finance Projections for 2014: A Roundup
December 27, 2013 5:16 PM
More Home Sales, Less Price Appreciation Going Forward
Home sales will rise to 5.9 million units in 2014 from more than 5.5 million in 2013. Home price appreciation as measured on different indices may subside a bit, falling from around 11% this year to 6% in 2014, according to Freddie Mac. (Image: Fotolia.)
Rates Will Get a Half Percent Higher
The 30-year mortgage rate will rise by 50 basis points to 5% by yearend, according to Freddie Macs forecast. The 30-year rate was about 1% higher than it was a year ago in Freddies last primary market survey. (Image: Fotolia.)
Purchases Take Over
The purchase-refi origination mix will go from about 60%-40% on average for this year currently to 40%-60% on average for next year, according to Freddies forecast. (Image: Fotolia.)
Government-Related RMBS Will Drop
Gross Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities issuance will total more than $1 trillion in 2014, down over $500 billion from 2013, MBS strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are forecasting. (Image: Fotolia.)
Freddie Multifamily MBS Will Fall Unless New FHFA Head Acts
Freddie Mac forecasts $25 billion in multifamily issuance for 2014, down from an estimated $28 billion for 2013. Mel Watt as the new head of Freddies regulator could change this, though. (Photo: Bloomberg)
The Highest Estimate for 2014 CMBS Issuance Is
Commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance could increase as much as $125 billion from about $90 billion in 2013, according to the extraordinarily bullish Anthony Orso, CEO, Cantor Commercial Real Estate.
