Monetary policy

Inflation cooled faster than expected last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to ease monetary policy if the economy weakens suddenly. But tariffs and other policy changes still cloud the outlook for monetary policy.

President Trump placed a 90-day pause on most of his sweeping tariff package, but for banks and other financial market participants, the threat of volatility remains.

Federal Reserve officials want to see how exactly new trade policies impact the U.S. economy before adjusting interest rates. Markets and monetarists have different ideas about what that might look like.

The central bank wants to let Trump's policies play out across the economy before deciding which way to move interest rates, and it's too soon to know what the impacts will be, the Federal Reserve chair said.

The Federal Reserve governor said it is healthy to examine the regulatory architecture, but stressed the importance of the central bank having insight into the banking system.

The personal consumption expenditures index showed headline inflation flat at 2.5%, but the details of the report explain the Federal Reserve's reluctance to adjust interest rates.

Get expert analysis of the May FOMC meeting, inflation outlook, and Powell's comments.

After the Federal Reserve moved to slow the pace of quantitative tightening, the Fed chair floated the idea of continuing to allow mortgage-backed securities to roll off its books even after the central bank has met its monetary policy objectives in reducing its balance sheet.

In a positive sign for the economy, headline inflation slowed in February. But the reading alone likely is not enough to break the Federal Open Market Committee out of its wait-and-see mode.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for patience amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's policies, saying there would be no immediate rate changes but that the Fed would proceed carefully.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman, one of the central bank's more inflation-wary officials, said the balance of risks for monetary policymaking could soon shift.

A March 2025 survey by the National Association for Business Economics shows growing inflation concerns — and a diminishing chance of rate cuts — in 2025, but also optimism about avoiding a recession.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation index showed little progress toward its target of 2%, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged rate pause.

Mike Goosay, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at Principal Asset Management, breaks down the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and the SEP.

As the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement program nears zero, pressure could mount on the central bank to slow or stop its asset runoff as it fights inflation.

With the Federal Reserve touting a slower pace of easing, markets are expecting a longer pause. But Gov. Christopher Waller said the next interest rate reduction could come as soon as March because of inflation data.

Seen by many as a logical pick for the Federal Reserve's next vice chair for supervision, Gov. Michelle Bowman wants the institution to focus on safety and soundness issues, tailoring and transparency.

Analysts are unsure what the Federal Open Market Committee will do with monetary policy in 2025. The panel projects two rate cuts, but some analysts expect more, and others see fewer.

The Federal Reserve is poised to make several key decisions during the year ahead that will impact monetary policy both in the near term and for years to come.

A week ahead of inauguration day, Scott Colbert, executive vice president, director of fixed income and chief economist at Commerce Trust, takes a look at how the Federal Reserve and the economy will fare in President-elect Donald Trump's second run in the White House.