Mortgage rates

The 30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgage is at its lowest point since the end of December, as Treasury yields are 29 basis points lower since Feb. 19.

Purchase volume was flat last week and up just 3% compared to the same time a year ago when the market faced similar rates in the high 6% range.

The increase in refinance originations in the fourth quarter trickled down to the title insurers, which reported year-over-year gains in new orders.

"Red flags are emerging for the US economy," said Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Another month or two of poor US economic data would deliver a blow to the US exceptionalism narrative."

The potential impacts of import tariffs cloud the outlook, though, and could lead mortgage rates to surge and fall throughout the coming year.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of 6.85% is just five basis points lower than the same time last year, following wider swings in the past 12 months.

Overall home loan application activity fell 6.6% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, with volume resembling the frigid start to the year.

While Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed 30-year rates falling, other indicators paint a mixed picture for mortgage lenders and borrowers.

Most participants in a monthly Wolters Kluwer survey no longer think the next short-term rate reduction will be in March.

The 17.2% of mortgage borrowers nationwide with interest rates equal to, or greater than 6%, is the largest share since 2016, according to Redfin.