Mortgage rates

Three Federal Reserve officials said they did not support the US central bank's decision to cut interest rates this week, citing inflation that remains too high.

The 30-year rate dropped just 0.2 percentage points, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments caused Treasury yields to rise.

An index of contract signings held at 74.8 after climbing a revised 4.2% a month earlier to the highest level since March, according to National Association of Realtors data released Wednesday.

Mortgage loan application volume jumped 7.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

Fannie Mae revised its economic and housing outlook for 2025 and 2026, projecting mortgage rates to hit 6.3% and 5.9%, respectively.

The industry analyst also described the significant refinance opportunity should rates decline slightly, and the threshold where home prices soften or firm up.

While expectations that another federal rate cut is on the way next week, other economic trends may be having a larger influence on mortgage lending.

While the Federal Open Market Committee has yet to meet this month, investor pricing of longer-term bonds helped mortgages by 11 basis points, Wallethub said.

While purchase volume is up 20% from last year, it was 5% lower than one week ago, although a 4% increase in refinance activity helped pick up the slack.

Mortgage Bankers Association economist Marina Walsh said lenders could be failing to close more loans as more consumers apply with multiple originators.

LendingTree found that during 2024, May's median price for a 1,500 square foot home was $194.20 versus January's $178.60, a difference of $23,400.

Observers believe the government shutdown and lack of data is keeping mortgage rates in the same narrow range, as investors have issues reading the tea leaves.

The Detroit-based mortgage bank's announcement trailed competitors' by over two weeks, but is taking a more aggressive risk-reward stance on the limit.

Rate-and-term transactions leaped by 154% from August to September, while cash-outs and purchase loans also increased, according to Optimal Blue.

The shutdown halted the release of employment data, typically a driver of mortgage rate activity, likely resulting in trackers moving in varying directions.

Affordability has improved and rate drops have exposed millions to incentives, but many more must wait for a break, ICE Mortgage Technology found.

While new jobs data contributed to falling Treasury yields, mortgage rates showed a mixed picture with some trackers moving in opposite directions.

A stock offering or conservatorship exit could raise loan costs in some contemplated scenarios, a Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research study finds.

The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed 12 basis points to 6.46% in the week ended Sept. 26, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday.

A potential government shutdown could create unprecedented risks for housing, delaying data releases, and affecting markets more than past shutdowns.