Economic indicators

Markets are still pricing in an increase in the federal funds rate later this month, but Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said his vote will depend on incoming unemployment and inflation data.

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July despite a World Cup bump and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index declined to cap off a pivotal week of economic indicators.

The consumer price index ticked up last month, bolstering arguments about broad-based inflation and raising the odds of a rate hike next month.

One of three Federal Open Market Committee members to vote for a higher federal funds rate last month, the Cleveland Fed president is undeterred by the labor force decline in July.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed the labor force continued to expand but at a weaker rate than in recent months. The development weakens the case for a near-term rate hike.

The ADP Research gauge of private-sector job growth in May showed an increase of 122,000, which slightly exceeded economists' median estimate.

Initial claims increased by 5,000 to 215,000 in the week ended May 23, the highest since mid-April, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

The government-sponsored enterprise sees current rate levels likely to stick for longer compared to past forecasts, with the Iran War looming in the background.

Employers hired an additional 115,000 workers in April, while unemployment remained unchanged at 4.3%. Despite the positive headline figure, a spike in newly unemployed workers and a rising number of underemployed workers suggests instability under the surface.

Equifax Inc. said the Iran war prompted more caution about the outlook for the rest of the year, even after a surge in mortgage applications drove first-quarter revenue growth to the fastest in more than four years.

Treasurys posted solid gains Friday as oil futures dropped $15 a barrel, while the S&P 500 logged its 10th straight day of higher highs, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer are scaling back rate cut expectations as Iran conflict-driven energy costs push inflation higher, complicating the Fed's path forward.

A Iran ceasefire sparked a $20 oil drop and Treasury rally, narrowing the rate-cut window from 18 to 15 months, but key technical resistance levels and a potentially ugly Friday CPI report could still reshape the outlook, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Some of Wall Street's biggest bond-fund managers say financial markets are underestimating the risk that the US war in Iran will cause a sharp slowdown in an already sputtering economy. 

Household net worth climbed $2.2 trillion from the prior quarter to $184.1 trillion, a Federal Reserve report showed Thursday.

As the US‑Israel‑Iran war disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and boosts oil prices, investors and trade flows are responding, creating mixed pressures on mortgage rates, housing costs and building materials.

Respondents to an exclusive NMN survey lay odds on lower rates boosting housing despite stagflation and recession risks. Here's how the Fed's view compares.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 64,000 in November after declining 105,000 in October, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday.

US consumer spending stalled in September, suggesting Americans were already stretched going into the government shutdown in the face of stubborn inflation.

Home Depot's bleak forecast provides another warning about the strength of US consumers in the absence of official economic data during the US government shutdown.