Mortgage rates

Buyers can expect a quiet market moving into July. Despite an uptick in new listings, a report on data from June said contract volume is still behind historical norms.

Home sales with mortgages rose from a year ago by a larger percentage, 15.1%, than those conducted in cash, which increased 10.6%.

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The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.1% from the prior month, the smallest in six months.

But economists seem to differ on what the latest movement in mortgage rates means for the summer home sales business.

Cook expects three- and six-month inflation rates to continue to move lower on a "bumpy path," with monthly data similar to the "favorable" readings seen in the second half of 2023 for the rest of the year.

Potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates is the growing view that the economy's so-called neutral rate — a theoretical level of borrowing costs that neither stimulates nor slows growth — is much higher than policymakers are currently projecting. 

The increase in total home sales will be slower than prior projections and that should lead to less growth in purchase originations, Fannie Mae's June forecast said.

The decline for the third consecutive week reflects investors' belief that the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to cut rates this year.

Markets appeared to welcome signs of future rate relief, with the latest Freddie Mac average falling for the fifth time in six weeks.