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Despite bullish jobs data, yields surged post-FOMC, with three possible wave theory outcomes ahead, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.
March 19
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Treasury yields swung wildly after a soft jobs report as oil's surge added a new complication for the Fed, raising concerns about the rate path ahead, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.
March 9
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
War headlines failed to lift Treasuries; rates sold off, resistance held, and hedging beat rate bets, according to the Head of Correspondent Business Development at AD Mortgage.
March 2
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Bond yields tested key resistance as markets largely shrugged at the data, according to the Head of Correspondent Business Development at AD Mortgage.
February 27
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Treasuries rallied and broke key levels, but stubborn 5-year resistance still caps momentum and rate-cut expectations remain unchanged, the CEO of IF Securities writes.
February 17
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
The 5-year yield swung sharply after conflicting BLS jobs and CPI data, with softer inflation boosting rate-cut hopes, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
February 13
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Treasury yields experienced a bullish open with the 5-year yield dropping over 15 basis points in five days, ahead of key jobs and inflation reports, as the dollar demonstrated strong adherence to technical levels, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
February 10
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Warsh has voiced support for overhauling the relationship between the two institutions with a new version of an agreement struck in 1951.
February 9 -
Despite a weak ADP jobs print, Treasury yields went nowhere, reinforcing a growing bearish, defensive case for rates, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
February 4
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Markets are sending mixed signals as the dollar slides, gold surges and Treasuries barely react, a disconnect that could spill into other assets, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
January 28
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Treasury yields are stuck, but gold and the dollar are flashing unusual signals that could push rates after the FOMC, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
January 27
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
The $69 billion sale of two-year notes was awarded at 3.580%, more than a basis point below its yield at the bidding deadline.
January 26 -
Treasury yields are diverging, charts are breaking down and trading looks two-sided into the FOMC, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
January 26
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
The $13 billion auction was awarded at 4.846%, about a basis point lower than its yield in trading just before 1 p.m.
January 21 -
Treasury yield breakouts signal technical damage, with higher yields likely before any recovery despite choppy markets, according to the CEO of IF Securities.
January 21
AD Mortgage and IF Securities -
Yields across maturities were higher by less than three basis points after rebounding from session lows.
January 8 -
Yields gravitated back toward session lows — down three to four basis points on the day — after the December ISM manufacturing gauge unexpectedly dropped.
January 5 -
Treasury yields climbed to the highest in more than two months, following losses in most global government-bond markets, ahead of a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision that may alter expectations for monetary policy in 2026.
December 8 -
While the tone is still generally upbeat, the market is mired below October's price highs and yields are range-bound.
November 24 -
Treasuries fell after the US government signaled that larger auction sizes are on the horizon, while signs of economic resilience hurt the odds a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December.
November 5







