Mortgage rates

While rate-and-term refinance locks boomed, the rise in purchases also was telling as it was the first since the Fed started raising rates, Optimal Blue said.

Quantitative tightening has helped to keep mortgage rates elevated, but new concerns over how it impacts market liquidity could lead the Fed to end the program.

Stronger than expected numbers for overall U.S. employment additions have diminished lender hopes for steeper rate drops, and industry hiring has been tepid.

The conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 6.12% on Oct. 3.

Treasuries are sliding after companies added more jobs than expected last month, sending a mixed signal to traders who are watching the labor market for signs the Federal Reserve needs to aggressively cut interest rates.

Homes are 4.4% more affordable, the first annual improvement in years, while first-time buyers with lower incomes can qualify for a median priced house.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% from July, and on a three-month annualized basis, it rose by 2.1%.

Mortgage rates being at a two-year low has not moved potential buyers off the sidelines, Freddie Mac says, but Redfin says demand for home tours is up.

After persisting for as long as two years in the U.S., the so-called inversion in yield curves — an unusual situation where rates on short-term debt exceed those of their longer-term counterparts — is unwinding in many parts of the world. 

Biden cast the Fed's decision to lower rates as a vindication of his stewardship of the nation's post-pandemic economic recovery and a sign of progress in the fight against high inflation that has been one of his — and Harris' — biggest political liabilities.

While the Freddie Mac survey found the 30-year fixed fell 11 basis points, other indicators, including the 10-year Treasury yield, have all increased.

Short-term rate cuts often don't immediately translate to lower financing costs for 30-year home loans, and there are some unique circumstances this time.

Fannie Mae's economists are pessimistic about the future for existing home sales, reducing its purchase volume outlook in both 2024 and 2025.

Asked about inflation risks ahead, she pointed to the impact of housing on the consumer price index, describing it as the "stickiest piece." Stripping out housing, the U.S. consumer price index is only rising about 1.8%, she said.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell week-to-week by the largest amount since the start of August and are now almost a percentage point lower than a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.

The latest inflation news is almost sure to result in a 25 basis point cut next week, but some are still hoping for 50 basis points, as well as reductions totaling almost 200 basis points through the end of 2025, Wolters Kluwer found.

Mortgage originators are adding more refinance-specific products, as rate locks continued to rise in August.

The 10-year Treasury yield was down by 10 basis points from a week ago, but Freddie Mac reported no movement in mortgage rates while other sources found that they were down by 7 basis points.

But the purchase business that brings in three times the fee size as refinancings will be the driver of the improvement for the publicly traded title underwriters.

Servicers saw their retention rate fall to the second-lowest level in 17 years, according to ICE Mortgage Technology.