Mortgage rates

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at its lowest level since early February as the benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped under 4%.

As Treasuries advance for a third-straight month, investors are fully pricing in at least two quarter-point rate reductions this year, slightly more than what policymakers have telegraphed.

But following the gross domestic product and personal consumption expenditures reports, Treasury yields and mortgage rates fell.

A run-up in mortgage rates and a constrained resale market has enabled builders to capitalize on the fractured U.S. housing landscape.

Lower inflation and a slowing jobs market is the driver of the new forecast, but housing will not see any immediate benefits.

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Both Vanguard Group Inc. and Fidelity International have said a Republican sweep in November would pose the greatest risk to bonds by expanding Trump's ability to implement his agenda, some of which is also expected to contribute to higher inflation.

Year-over-year consumer dollars for home remodeling projects should drop 0.5% by 2Q25, after a 3% decline for the trailing 12 months, said the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

Even though the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at its lowest level since mid-March, consumers are being cautious in returning to the market, Freddie Mac said.

Nearly all of the economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer in July expect the FOMC to reduce short-term rates, but less of them expect it to happen at the September meeting than the number who believed so last month.

The resilience of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism the economy has withstood the worst of Fed tightening.

Positive signs on jobs and inflation help drive the 10-year Treasury yield lower, and lead investors to forecast a short-term rate cut sooner than later, Freddie Mac said.

For the sixth consecutive month, more mortgage credit is available to consumers, but it still remains historically tight, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

The increase, coming off of persistent low levels, did not counter the slow purchase market during the month, Optimal Blue found.

June housing market data from Redfin found home prices hit a new all-time high. Fortunately, monthly mortgage payments decreased and new listings were up 10%.

Ongoing challenges from limited inventory levels and elevated prices likely spells little lending momentum this summer, Mortgage Capital Trading said in its latest report.

The overall Bureau of Labor Statistics number was a tad higher than expected but other indicators point to economic weakness that could lower mortgage rates.

News on the jobs front on Wednesday eliminated two-thirds of the six-day gain in Treasury yields.

Year-over-year home price growth was at its slowest pace since October, Corelogic's Home Price Index report said.

Buyers can expect a quiet market moving into July. Despite an uptick in new listings, a report on data from June said contract volume is still behind historical norms.