Core Mortgage Risk Index Rises Further

The third-quarter Core Mortgage Risk Index, which forecasts the relative risk of residential loan delinquencies, stands 12% higher than it did a year ago, according to First American CoreLogic, Santa Ana, Calif. The risk index has risen for 11 of the late 12 quarters, the company said. "The CMRI is currently 55% above the base period of the first quarter of 2002, a period near the end of the last U.S. economic recession," said Mark Fleming, the company's chief economist. "Although significantly higher now than during this base period, the CMRI is likely to continue rising nationally over the next 18 months." Mr. Fleming said declining home prices are the "primary factor" in the most recent rise in mortgage risk. CoreLogic, a provider of mortgage risk assessment and fraud prevention systems, can be found on the Web at http://www.facorelogic.com.