El Niño means less active Atlantic hurricane season in 2026

Mortgage servicers can breathe easier: this year's Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be below normal.  

Still, even if one storm makes landfall in the U.S., property damages could be significant. For mortgage servicers, the effects of natural disasters, not just property damage and replacement but also the impact of temporary (and possibly permanent) job loss have been a past driver of increased delinquency rates in affected areas.

The Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science is forecasting 13 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean in 2026, of which six will become hurricanes; two of those will become major hurricanes. The latter are storms rated as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

A typical season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

While the CSU team called last year above normal because of the number of major hurricanes, just one named storm made landfall in the U.S.

The 2025 season had 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four of those considered major. But only Tropical Storm Chantal came on shore in South Carolina.

Last year was first in a decade that no named hurricanes made landfall in the U.S.

Why no hurricanes made landfall last year in the U.S.

"Sheer luck spared the United States from hurricane landfalls in 2025," said Thomas Blunck, a member of the board of management at Munich Re, in a blog post from January. "But the country is still No. 1 in loss statistics, owing to the increasing trend towards very considerable damage caused by non-peak perils."

The Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025 were the costliest natural disaster of the year, with overall losses of $53 billion and insured losses of $40 billion, Munich Re said. Severe thunderstorms in the south was the second most expensive natural disaster, at $9.4 billion, of which $7 billion was insured.

Worldwide, tropical cyclones resulted in $37 billion of losses, with $6 billion covered by insurance; because no hurricanes made U.S. landfall, it reduced the loss totals significantly below 10-year and 30-year averages.

What CSU is predicting for 2026

As of today, experts are predicting a moderate-to-strong El Niño pattern for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs between June 1 and Nov. 30.

Normally, an El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity because it increases vertical wind shear.

"Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average," Phil Klotzbach of CSU, a non-resident scholar for the Insurance Information Institute said in a press release. "We consequently do not anticipate tropical Atlantic water temperatures being as strong of a hurricane-enhancing factor as they were the past few years when water temperatures were much warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic."

The CSU's forecast shows the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026:

• 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
• 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average 21%)
• 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average 27%)
• 35% for the Caribbean (average 47%)

"While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental U.S., all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's start is less than two months away," said Sean Kevelighan, the CEO of the Triple-I, in a press release.