Lenders anticipate more revenue, but split on hiring plans

Most lenders expect to make more money this year, but aren't committing to increase hiring.

Those sentiments are part of a largely bullish forecast by mortgage professionals in the National Mortgage News Predictions 2026 survey. A combined 84% of respondents said they expect a slight to significant increase in revenue this calendar year versus 2025, versus just 3% of industry experts who anticipate a slight decrease in revenue.

The rosier outlook follows recent projections by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association of greater origination volume in 2026. National Mortgage News surveyed 156 industry experts between November and December, and 126 of them — at all corporate rungs, split near-even between banks, credit unions and nonbanks — anticipated bigger earnings. 

Would more money equal more hiring?

Only a handful of lenders can imagine large layoffs and less than a quarter of companies across all size thresholds think they'll decrease headcount, even by a little, according to the survey. Rather, the more common strategy is to stand pat. Over a third of companies which originate 1,000 loans a year or less expect no change to staffing levels, while 23% of firms churning 5,000 or more loans a year expect to stay level. 

Respondents shared cautious optimism around hiring, around a third of professionals anticipating small hiring rounds. The smallest shops which originate fewer than 500 loans per year seem eager, as a combined 41% of those industry experts suggest hiring plans outweigh other strategies. 

The most conservative bunch are small-to-midsized lenders, who originate between 500 to 1,000 loans per year, as just 36% of those representatives said they expect to widen their payroll.

Most originators told National Mortgage News they don't expect artificial intelligence to replace their workforce. However, some leaders still raised those longstanding concerns among other industry hot takes.

"AI is going to eliminate most ops positions," said one manager of a bank lender which originates between 1,000 to 4,999 loans per year. 

Competition will tighten

Mergers and acquisitions flourished in 2025, beginning with Rocket's blockbuster deals for Redfin and Mr. Cooper in the spring and ending with United Wholesale Mortgage's billion-dollar deal in December for Two Harbors Investment. Industry watchers expect another busy year. 

Ninety percent of 150 mortgage professionals believe further consolidation among lenders is likely in 2026, with 31% saying it's "definitely" going to happen. Opinions are mixed regarding the behavior of publicly traded giants, after Guild Mortgage last year agreed to go private in a deal with Bayview Asset Management.

Besides the M&A activity, originators expect banks and credit unions to continue to pull back from the home loan space. Independent mortgage banks in recent years have accounted for two-thirds of all originations, and a report by the Community Home Lenders of America last month claims IMBs account for over 90% of government-sponsored lending business. 

While 65% of respondents expect banks and credit unions to leave, an overwhelming majority expect fintechs to continue their reach into the mortgage industry. Those predictions are already coming true, as retailer Bed Bath & Beyond, with the help of Figure Technologies, is moving into the space.

Industry professionals told National Mortgage News they expect new blood from outside the industry to buy into mortgage lending. 

"I expect we will see a major non-traditional player like a big tech company enter the mortgage space with a fully digital, AI-driven process that dramatically cuts closing times to just days instead of weeks," said one director of loan processing at a small bank originator. 

The industry has been wary of nonbanks with mortgage servicing rights positioning themselves to dominate the next refinance environment. That boom hasn't yet materialized, however, as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage hasn't sunk below 6% in almost four years. Industry participants instead think independent mortgage brokers will gain the most business in 2026, ahead of those nonbanks with servicing books.

And despite the expected bank retreat, 19% of respondents still believe depositories will gain the most business in 2026, followed by nonbanks without servicing (11%). Fewer mortgage players believe builders with home loan arms, who can offer ultra-low rates and home price discounts, will gain an edge in what's still a relatively sluggish sales market.