Lift in mortgage cure rates may bode well for FHA recovery

A lift in cure rates for distressed mortgages showed staying power in April with the monthly number significantly higher than earlier in the year, according to Intercontinental Exchange.

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The consistent monthly rate of more than 62,000 far outpaces an average around 42,000 between November and February, ICE found in its First Look report.

Servicers are monitoring cure rates as they contend with backlogged assistance requests due to a rule change that's been in place at the Federal Housing Administration since October, and the uptick suggests normalization, but may not tell the whole story.

Loan performance typically improves in the spring and a top executive said at the Mortgage Bankers Association's secondary and capital market conference last week that he expects the period from June on will shed more light on what delinquency and cure rates are really like.

In the meantime, National Mortgage News took a look at what the latest numbers show and asked experts to weigh in on how much influence the FHA rule and seasonal factors may be having on them.

"Most of the improvement over the past two months reflects a normalization of FHA cure reporting," said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE.

Cures from 90-plus day delinquencies are down 20% from year-ago levels but the periods are not comparable due to the more lenient assistance rules in place at the time.

"While the number of FHA loans curing out of serious delinquency has more than doubled over the past two months, volumes still remain roughly 15%-20% below their Q3 2025 average," Walden added in an emailed statement.

Foreclosures, delinquencies and broader credit trends

The overall delinquency rate matched March's by ICE Mortgage Technology's reckoning at 3.35%, but that is up 13 basis points from a year earlier and 45 bps above January 2020's prepandemic levels.

The longer-term increases stem from higher rates of loans 90 or more days past due, in line with a report from Ginnie Mae indicating the FHA rule change has had a role in boosting serious delinquencies in particular.

Loans in that category but not in foreclosure totaled 577,000 during the month. While that number was down 11,000 from March, it was up 21% (or by 101,000), from year-ago levels.

The 37,000 foreclosure starts recorded during the month marked the highest number seen for April since the pandemic. Sales of foreclosed properties totaled 7,900 during the month, up 22% on the year.

Both foreclosure sales and starts remain below prepandemic levels. 

Foreclosure inventory totaled 276,000 during the month, up 3,000 from March, 32% from a year earlier and slightly above 271,000 in March 2020, when the pandemic was just starting.

The 0.92% prepayment rate in April was 13% lower than during the previous month due to higher rates, but was still elevated compared to year-ago levels.

Meanwhile, seasonal factors alone stabilized some other, broader consumer credit indicators such as the average VantageScore 4.0, which held steady at 701 in the past month. This suggests seasonal factors likely contributed to the plateau in mortgage delinquencies too.

"While the FHA waterfall change may have a bigger impact as predicted recently, we can also put some impact to tax refunds and annual employment bonuses," said Mirza Hodzic, managing director and founder of BlackWolf Advisory Group, a servicing consultancy.


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