Nonbank
Combined numbers for positions in real estate credit and loan brokerage show there were 276,000 people on industry payrolls in December, up very slightly from a downwardly revised 275,800 in November.
The question now is whether industry employment will continue to stabilize given the latest numbers for broader employment show a higher-then-anticipate surge, which suggests a mixed outlook for originations. U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January. Unemployment remained low at 3.7%.
"The strong job market is good news for the spring buying season as higher household incomes are a necessary component, but it also means that mortgage rates are not likely to drop much further," Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at
While the overall jobs number was unusually strong, there are still mixed signals in the economy that
"There is too little here for a trend. Other labor indicators continue to cool and inflation is decelerating," Ksenia Potapov, an economist at First American, said in an emailed statement. "If inflation continues to decelerate, the Fed may well cut rates three times this year, which would still keep monetary policy in restrictive territory."
If the cuts proceed, mortgage rates could stay in a range around 6% that should be helpful to housing, Potapov said. The
But another component of the housing outlook that job numbers factor to also has to be considered and that is employment in the construction industry.
With many existing homeowners unwilling to give up lower interest rates they got in the past and sell their houses unless there's a pressing reason to move, new construction has become more important as a source of inventory.
The latest numbers are promising in that regard, Potapov said.
"The largest increase in monthly employment growth came from non-residential specialty trade contractors, whose primary activity is performing specific tasks – pouring concrete, site preparation, plumbing, painting, and electrical work-involved in building construction," she said.
